Gold Market Trend Analysis -

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, which recorded an annual rate of 1.8%, higher than the market's expected 1.6%, and the previous value was revised up from 1.7% to 1.9%. Although the monthly rate recorded 0%, slightly lower than the market's expected 0.1%, the overall data reflects that inflationary pressures still exist. The core PPI annual rate is also as high as 2.8%, exceeding the expected 2.7%, continuing to show strong inflation stickiness. This data highlights the complexity of the U.S. inflation situation, leading the market to once again engage in intense discussions about the future of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. This increase in gold reflects the market's concerns about inflation risks, and the sentiment of seeking safety has heated up again. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) performed relatively weakly, with a short-term drop of more than 10 points, currently reporting 102.83. The weakening of the dollar is directly related to some indicators of the PPI data that did not meet market expectations, especially the flat monthly rate, which has led investors to question the short-term support strength of the dollar. The release of the PPI data undoubtedly increases the market's uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's future policy path. Many well-known institutions believe that the September PPI data show that U.S. inflation is generally stable, providing some basis for the Federal Reserve to further lower interest rates later this year or early next year. The sharp decline in gasoline prices has provided support for curbing the upward pressure on PPI, and although the price of food wholesale has risen significantly, the decline in energy prices has obviously weakened the overall risk of inflation going up. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is particularly crucial at this moment, and the market is highly sensitive to it. The market generally believed that the Federal Reserve's tightening policy cycle was approaching the end, and the September PPI data confirmed this expectation to some extent. Although the annual rate data is still higher than expected, the market still sees signs of slowing inflation, especially the cooling in the energy sector, which has reignited the market's hopes for interest rate cuts. Institutions generally believe that the stabilization of inflation will give the Federal Reserve more room to slow down interest rate hikes or gradually shift to a pace of lowering interest rates in the future. Some analysts even believe that the Federal Reserve may initiate the first interest rate cut in the first quarter of next year, which will have a significant impact on both the dollar and gold markets. A well-known analyst pointed out, "The Federal Reserve's next move depends on the upcoming economic data, and the moderate performance of PPI and CPI may provide them with a reason for further easing."

Technically, on the daily chart, gold is still in a high position with a small range of consolidation. The technical indicator MACD forms a death cross, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) begins to fall from the overbought area, showing that gold has a heavy head in the short term. If the gold price breaks below the low of September 30 at $2624 per ounce, it may fall back to the $2600 per ounce level. If it further weakens, the next support will be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2531 per ounce. On the other hand, if the gold price can close above $2650 per ounce and needs to break through $2670 per ounce, it can challenge the highest point so far this year at $2685 per ounce. After that, the gold price will aim for the $2700 per ounce level.

Crude Oil Thoughts -

After the crude oil price fell in the first half of the week, the crude oil price was supported by the lower Bollinger band and rebounded. Then the market was strongly pushed up by the tense situation in the Middle East. The daily highest touched $72.52 per barrel, and then the market consolidated and fell back. The daily finally closed at $71.27 per barrel. The market ended with a large positive line with a lower upper shadow than the lower shadow. After such a pattern, crude oil has the potential to continue to rise, and the current high point has already stood above 74.

At present, the crude oil market is too affected by the situation in the Middle East, and the short-term market trend has a strong emotional trend risk. In terms of operation, the crude oil is full of large Yang, and the entity effectively stands on the previous convergence triangle lower track resistance point, thus returning to the channel. Then,回踩 confirms the 72.9 support and continues to treat the rise. If the short line cannot break 73, then the high position continues to rise, and the resistance target is 76-77. If there is a decline to the target division point, you can enter with a stop loss.

Spot Silver -

The silver market opened at 31.674 yesterday, and the market first fell to 31.253, then the market quickly rose. The daily highest touched 31.768, and then the market fluctuated and fell all the way. The daily lowest gave 30.106, and then the market rose at the end of the day. The daily finally closed at 30.658. Today, it is recommended to be empty at 31.25, stop loss at 31.45, and the lower target looks at 30.5 and 30.2.