Gold Market Trend Analysis -

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, which recorded an annual rate of 1.8%, higher than the market's expected 1.6%, and the previous value was also revised up from 1.7% to 1.9%. Although the monthly rate recorded 0%, slightly lower than the market's expected 0.1%, the overall data reflects that inflationary pressures still exist. The core PPI annual rate is also as high as 2.8%, exceeding the expected 2.7%, continuing to show strong inflation stickiness. This data highlights the complexity of the U.S. inflation situation, leading the market to once again engage in intense discussions about the future of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. This increase in gold reflects the market's concerns about inflation risks, with the sentiment of seeking safety heating up again. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) performed relatively weakly, with a short-term drop of more than 10 points, currently reporting 102.83. The weakening of the dollar is directly related to some indicators of the PPI data that did not meet market expectations, especially the flat monthly rate, which has led investors to question the short-term support strength of the dollar. The release of the PPI data undoubtedly increases the market's uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's future policy path. Many well-known institutions believe that the September PPI data show that U.S. inflation is generally stabilizing, which provides some basis for the Federal Reserve to further reduce interest rates within the year or at the beginning of next year. The significant decline in gasoline prices has provided support for curbing the upward pressure on PPI, and although the price of food wholesale has risen significantly, the decline in energy prices has obviously weakened the overall risk of inflation going up. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is particularly crucial at this moment, and the market is highly sensitive to it. Previously, the market generally believed that the Federal Reserve's tightening policy cycle was nearing its end, and the September PPI data confirmed this expectation to some extent. Although the annual rate data is still higher than expected, the market still sees signs of slowing inflation, especially the cooling in the energy sector, which has reignited the market's hopes for interest rate cuts. Institutions generally believe that the stabilization of inflation will give the Federal Reserve more room to slow down interest rate hikes in the future or gradually shift to a pace of reducing interest rates. Some analysts even believe that the Federal Reserve may start its first interest rate cut in the first quarter of next year, which will have a significant impact on both the dollar and gold markets. A well-known analyst pointed out, "The Federal Reserve's next move depends on the subsequent economic data, and the moderate performance of PPI and CPI may provide them with a further reason for easing."

Technically, on the daily chart, gold is still in a high-position interval for minor consolidation, with the technical indicator MACD forming a death cross, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) beginning to fall from the overbought area, showing that gold has a heavier head in the short term. If the gold price breaks below the low of September 30 at $2,624 per ounce, it may fall back to the $2,600 per ounce level. If it further softens, the next support will be the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2,531 per ounce. On the other hand, if the gold price can close above $2,650 per ounce and needs to break through $2,670 per ounce, it can challenge the highest point so far this year at $2,685 per ounce. After that, the gold price will aim for the $2,700 per ounce level.

Gold Ideas -

Now that gold has broken below the 4H midline of 2626 again, the possibility has become smaller. For the time being, focus on the interval points between 2640-2660, and the lower space expansion is 2630-2660. The fallback carries a stop loss at 2642, and touching the low position nearby is an opportunity to go long.

Crude Oil Ideas -

After the decline in the first half of the week, the crude oil price was supported by the Bollinger lower track and rebounded. Subsequently, the situation was strongly promoted by the tense factors in the Middle East, with the daily highest touching $72.52 per barrel. After the situation was sorted out and fell back, the daily finally closed at $71.27 per barrel. The situation ended with a large positive line with a lower shadow line than the upper shadow line, and after such a shape, crude oil has the potential to continue to rise, and the current high point has stood above 74.

Crude oil is currently too affected by the situation in the Middle East, and the short-term situation is very emotional. In terms of operations, crude oil is full of large Yang, and the entity effectively stands on the previous convergence triangle lower track anti-pressure point, thus returning to the channel. Then,回踩 confirms the 72.9 support and continues to look bullish. If the short line cannot break 73, then the high position continues to look bullish, with resistance targets at 76-77. If there is a fallback to the target division point, you can enter with a stop loss.

Spot Silver -The silver market opened yesterday at the position of 31.674 and then the market first fell to the position of 31.253. After that, the market quickly rose, with the highest daily touch reaching the position of 31.768. The market then fell all the way, with the lowest daily touch reaching the position of 30.106. At the end of the day, the market rose, and the daily closing position was at 30.658. Today's suggestion is to go short at 31.25, with a stop loss at 31.45. The target positions below are 30.5 and 30.2.