Today's A-share market, under the eager anticipation of many, opened slightly higher and then experienced significant fluctuations. Where is the promised rebound? Can the A-share market continue to rebound strongly in the afternoon and set a new high?

Firstly, the trend of today's A-share market is quite complex, with mutual constraints that have limited the rebound in the morning. This is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

1. The old routine.

Using the FTSE A50 futures index to influence the opening price of A-shares, then quickly lifting it to create a bullish atmosphere. However, after a brief surge, it quickly fell back, causing the A-share market to rise and fall sharply, testing the support at 3,200 points again.

2. The securities sector plummeted, while the banking sector provided support, leading to a significant decrease in the market's bullish sentiment.

Today, the A-share securities index plummeted by more than 3%. Without corresponding large-cap stock sectors to offset it, not only would there be no rebound, but the index would also plummet significantly. This is because the leading sector of this wave of the market is the securities sector. CITIC Securities, a major heavyweight stock in the securities sector, saw its maximum intraday decline exceed 7% and began to fill the gap from September 30th.

The main force in the market had no choice but to bring out the banking sector, both to support the market and to continue to lift and sell. Taking advantage of the absence of a leading sector in the market, they made a show to attract retail investor funds to take over.

However, the banking sector has been on the rise for nearly 10 years, and it has seen a significant increase this year. The market is not interested in it. But in order to sell, they are not afraid to launch this rapid and significant rebound.

Around 11 o'clock, the A-share market rebounded, mainly due to the rebound of the securities sector, which shows how indifferent the market is to the banking sector.

3. The Hang Seng Index also experienced a significant decline this morning, which had a considerable impact on the trend of A-shares.The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell by more than 2% this morning, and the China Enterprises Index also declined by 2% in tandem. This undoubtedly has an adverse impact on the recently hyped "China" stocks, which must be remembered to refer specifically to those with H-shares, not a general reference.

In recent days, there has been a recurring narrative about foreign capital flooding in to buy up Chinese assets. This discourse has persisted from last year to the present. We can clearly see from the situation of the FTSE A50 futures that the trading volume has shrunk significantly during holidays, and foreigners do not celebrate the National Day holiday, so it is still domestic capital that is manipulating the market. The connection between A-shares and foreign capital is far lower than that of the Hang Seng Index. If there were a significant connection, there would be no need for daily articles claiming that foreign capital is aggressively buying.

Fourthly, the main funds within the market are continuously dispersing shares through fluctuations. This morning, there was a significant fluctuation in A-shares, with the net outflow of main funds in the A-share market being less than 20 billion yuan. By 11 o'clock, when a rebound occurred, the net outflow of main funds had expanded to 69 billion yuan. This indicates that selling remains the main objective of the main funds. Following the rebound after 11 o'clock, the net outflow of main funds decreased to 58 billion yuan.

Secondly, regardless of the fluctuations in A-shares this morning, I maintain that today is a rebound trend. Yesterday's article predicted that A-shares would rebound today, mainly to correct the oversold condition of the 60-minute trend, with the target area near the gap on Friday, around 3297 points. If it is not achieved today, it will continue tomorrow. This is mainly because the current trading volume level can still maintain market activity, and the main funds are still quite active.

In the next few days, everyone should pay attention to the trend around 3200 points. Recently, the main funds have deliberately created fluctuations above 3200 points. After a rapid fall on Friday, it was quickly pulled back, indicating that the main funds attach great importance to this position. However, this is still to create a bottom-fishing opportunity for funds that want to enter the market, which is actually selling at a secondary high point.

Today's A-shares show a general upward trend, with nearly 3700 stocks rising. However, the average stock price index of A-shares only rose by 0.15%, far lower than the 1.08% increase in the A-share market index. This is consistent with the above analysis. Today, it was mainly the banks that pulled up the index. The securities sector fell by more than 3% in the morning and narrowed to 1.7% at noon. However, the ChiNext Index trend is also relatively weak, all following the fluctuations of the main board without taking the initiative.

What everyone should pay attention to is that as the A-share market continues to rebound, the trading volume has shrunk, which does not support a significant rebound trend. This is mainly due to the market's extreme indifference to the banking sector, and the main funds have once again fallen into a situation of self-promotion, which is truly lamentable.Pay attention to the trend of individual stocks. Since this is a technical rebound, not a change in the trend, the decline will continue after the rebound. When operating, do not be overly attached to the battle, nor be confused by the temptation of a bull market. Grasp the trend of your own stocks and sell resolutely when it's time to sell.