Over the weekend, the global focus is undoubtedly on the statement from the Ministry of Finance on Saturday. The reason for the high level of attention from both domestic and international networks is that the incremental policy signals released by the Ministry of Finance will affect the expectations and direction of the overall capital market.

Do not think that this press conference held by the State Council Information Office is irrelevant to most people; doing so would be a big mistake. The policies of the Ministry of Finance will involve the real estate market, finance, local government debt, rural livelihoods, and economic trends, among other things.

Although there was no direct mention of stock market policies, almost all incremental policies will affect the direction of the financial market. Despite the market still being highly divided over the weekend, I believe the suspense of the market trend next week is not that great. Let me share my views on the market for next week:

1. The weekend's good news is full of sincerity; let's look at the impact on the stock market from a different perspective:

From the unexpected policy release by the State Council Information Office on September 24, to the significant Politburo meeting on September 26, to the National Development and Reform Commission meeting on October 8, and finally to the incremental policy of the Ministry of Finance on October 12.

During this period, the stock market experienced sharp rises and falls, which are inseparable from two key words: policy and expectations.

When policies are released beyond expectations, emotions drive the stock market to soar; when policies continue to fall short of expectations, emotions amplify panic, leading to sharp declines in the stock market.

This means that the current stock market is actually more dependent on policies and expectations, and has little to do with valuations, fundamentals, and profits. Even before this press conference, many people were looking at foreign media reports that did not meet expectations, which also shows that most people are still being "held hostage" by expectations.

In that case, I think the Ministry of Finance's press conference on Saturday has done the best job of managing expectations. Although many people are saying it did not meet expectations, it is said that the current market sentiment is as follows:

Those who are fully invested will feel it exceeded expectations, those who are not invested will say it did not meet expectations, and those who are on the sidelines will think that it seems like nothing was said, completely indifferent.Let's set aside the position factor and look at things from a different perspective, analyzing solely from the point of view of expectations. Is this a full display of goodwill?

Firstly, after the stock market's sharp decline, policies immediately provided confidence in various aspects, which in itself is a boost to expectations.

Secondly, the choice to stabilize real estate, resolve local debt, replenish the Tier 1 capital of state-owned banks, and increase leverage with room for deficit expansion, all these actions convey a strong confidence in policy.

Thirdly, the stock market has moved into a fast bull market due to policy and expectations, and these policies and expectations continue to this day. Therefore, it's not easy to say that the bull market has ended. If the market once again interprets this as not meeting expectations and weakens, there will definitely be additional policies to support it in the future. This goal will not change.

So, today we don't need to guess the direction of policy anymore; we just need to think about the current internal logical connections. The policies and expectations for the bull market in the market have not changed, so the bull market may continue.

In summary, the impression the Ministry of Finance's press conference left me with is that when there's not enough money, they provide it; when there's debt risk, they provide money to resolve it; when state-owned banks lack capital, they provide it; and when there's concern about not having enough money, they simply increase leverage.

So, from these perspectives, is this not a full display of goodwill towards the stock market? Although we don't want to see a surge now, this is indeed not below expectations for the stock market. If you truly understand the signals released by those policies.

2. No more guessing, the market next Monday will likely move as follows:

(1) First of all, several sectors have been discussed as favorable over the weekend:

The first is the debt resolution concept, mainly involving some asset management company stocks with state-owned backgrounds. There are many lists online, and many of these have been locked in over the weekend. Many of these stocks may open high, or even at the limit up, on Monday.But for most retail investors, they might fall into the trap of essentially buying into pitfalls, while the strong ones are out of reach, so it's important to stay rational. On Friday, a considerable amount of capital had already rushed in ahead of time to take positions in a stealth mode.

Secondly, regarding the real estate sector, will real estate stocks replace securities firms and become the main force driving the second round of the bull market? On Friday, many real estate-related concepts had already seen significant increases.

If we consider this from a bull market perspective, securities firms are bound to benefit more than real estate in a bull market. However, it's quite clear that after the rapid surge of securities firms, the market is no longer in a frenzy, so the likelihood of securities firms' prices rising rapidly will also slow down.

Although a considerable amount of capital went to move the securities sector on Friday, a second outbreak is not expected to happen so quickly. I believe that real estate stocks are more driven by policy expectations, which help the real estate sector to stop falling and stabilize, aiding in the resolution of risks within the real estate sector.

In the short term, this is good news for the real estate sector. However, looking at the long term, there is a lack of imagination for real estate stocks, and if they open too high, caution is needed.

Thirdly, for the banking sector, replenishing the Tier 1 capital of banks is considered good news for state-owned major banks. After the market has experienced wild fluctuations, a considerable amount of capital has also taken refuge in the banking sector, and I believe that the banking sector is relatively advantageous in the short term.

Additionally, with the official implementation of the central bank's swap facility, funds generally opt for high dividend sectors, with the goal that the annual dividend income might cover the low-interest financing costs. Therefore, high dividend assets like banks will continue to attract attention.

The above three directions are directly driven by favorable news over the weekend. Apart from these, it's essentially about looking at growth tracks such as technology and new energy. Currently, there is a significant divergence in themes. On one hand, there is a lot of news about semiconductor share reductions, and on the other hand, growth stocks are more affected by the panic in the market sentiment.

However, in terms of time and space, once the market stops falling and stabilizes, it is expected that individual stock sentiment will recover relatively quickly, and technology growth will still be the mainstream of the future.

(2) How will the market perform next Monday? I will directly state my opinion:Firstly, judging from the weekend sentiment, although the bearish voices are louder than the bullish ones, I believe there is a high probability that the market will open higher tomorrow. This opening will be significantly different from the one on the first day after the holiday.

The market sentiment has cooled down considerably, so the strength of the opening will be limited. Considering the severe lack of confidence, a large amount of capital will be eager to exit quickly, leading to selling pressure and a subsequent pullback after the opening. After the intraday fluctuations, the market is expected to rebound and stabilize.

Therefore, it is quite likely that the market will open higher on Monday next week, experience a pullback, and then rebound.

Secondly, from an emotional perspective, short-term bearishness is significantly greater than bullishness. Emotional divergence will cool down the market, and a return to rationality will help the continuation of a slow bull market.

Currently, many fund investors are redeeming a large number of products when the net value of the products rebounds, leading to the liquidation or reduction of many fund products. This also puts significant pressure on heavily weighted individual stocks and becomes a short-term selling pressure in the market.

The reason is that under a bear market mentality, the confidence to exit the market during a rebound is insufficient, leading to greater emotional fluctuations.

Thirdly, from the perspective of policy and expectations, some measures of incremental policies may emerge at the National People's Congress in the middle and late part of this month, so expectations are consistent and always present.

Moreover, incremental policies are not all released at once, and there is still a lot of room for imagination in the future. There is no reason for the stock market to fall directly in a single-sided A-shaped pattern.

Therefore, next week, it is crucial to watch the market rebound and stabilize, to stick to one's original intention, not to be disturbed by emotions, and not to be harvested by emotions.