The U.S. executive branch has additional tools at its disposal to implement dollar policy independently of the Federal Reserve. The President can utilize the ESF fund in an attempt to weaken the dollar. However, when it comes to cooperating with the Federal Reserve, the situation becomes more ambiguous. Xu Gucheng stated that if the Federal Reserve does not cooperate with the Treasury, it may attract unnecessary political attention. Even large-scale intervention would be a fleeting event for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet of about $7 trillion.

The current issue for gold is the pace at which the Federal Reserve will ease policy following higher-than-expected inflation and a slowing labor market. We still expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in both November and December. Gold ETFs saw inflows for five consecutive months in September, attracting $1.4 billion. This growth was driven by North America, while Europe was the only region to experience net outflows. Regardless of the election outcome, gold is likely to perform well. The upward momentum for gold is expected to continue next year, with an average price of $2,700 per ounce for gold in 2025.

Gold: On the 4-hour chart, spot gold experienced a downward correction to 2605, but has since shown signs of recovery. The current technical indicators suggest that gold may continue to move towards 2676.5, which will become the next target for this upward trend. However, after reaching this level, there may be a correction to 2645. This bullish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, which is preparing for potential increases, indicating that momentum is strengthening. The market may rise again to 2662. This forecast is supported by the stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is currently above 80 but is expected to start falling, indicating a short-term correction before further increases. Especially at a critical moment when the economic situation can truly usher in a halt and stabilization, boosting the capital market is the most effective way to increase confidence and enhance cohesion. Xu Gucheng believes that this has never happened in the past and is confident that it will succeed, although the process is bumpy, with no turning back once the bow is drawn, and no way to retreat.

Crude Oil: The risk premium for crude oil remains negligible. Although Brent crude oil prices rose sharply in the short term after Iran attacked Israel, Xu Gucheng believes that the geopolitical risk premium remains negligible. OPEC has idle production capacity of up to 6 million barrels per day, which can withstand potential supply tightening shocks. The liquidity in the financial oil market is stronger than in the past, providing traders with options to buy insurance at a reasonable premium instead of direct positioning. In summary, the recent increase in oil prices seems unremarkable, but uncertainties are everywhere. Next week, Xu Gucheng believes that the overall focus should be on rebounding, with a key focus on the breakthrough of the range between 78.45 and 71.4. If there is an upward breakthrough, the overall outlook will be further bullish; otherwise, the overall outlook will continue to be bearish.

Facing the market is essentially facing oneself, correcting shortcomings, confronting mistakes, being strict with oneself, and not lying are the foundations of success.